We know what we are, but not what we may be.
Looking into the near future (the next 100 years), we can envision several destinies for the human race. In this section I suggest seven possibilities, and then I offer my estimate of the chances for each scenario coming to pass.
Not all are equally likely to develop. The actual outcome, in fact, will probably be a blend of two or more of these scenarios, and could easily include factors not anticipated here. As Niels Bohr has famously said, "Prediction is extremely difficult. Especially about the future."
In this scenario, reactionary critics of scientific progress, from supporters of "creationism" to radical environmental protection groups, and from neo-Luddites to educated technophobes (such as Francis Fukuyama and Leon Kass), are successful in essentially halting development. The result is a monumental increase in world misery.
Research scientists, technology entrepreneurs, open-minded academics and political progressives are persecuted and stymied in most countries, including the U.S.; they are systematically silenced, jailed, or exterminated in other places. Advancements in artificial intelligence, genetic engineering, space exploration, robotics, and nanotechnology come to a halt. Moore's Law is finally overturned.
Famine, pestilence, disease, and starvation at levels never seen before devastate much of the world. As millions suffer horrible wasting deaths, billions more are born into inescapable poverty and squalor. Chronic worldwide economic crises result in massive political instability that leads to civil wars, regional wars, and ultimately nuclear wars.
At the close of the 21st century, world conditions have returned to a state more like the 19th century. It is the second Dark Ages.
This is the scenario hardest to envision. Many trends and historical factors point to robust growth as a virtual inevitability, if there is to be any growth at all.
The ethos of scientific and technological progress is so deeply ingrained in our civilization that halting this process is essentially impossible. Occasional ethical and legal impediments to fairly narrow developments are rather like stones in the river of advancement; the flow of progress just flows around them.
Ray Kurzweil, Inventor
Be that as it may, let's imagine that a barrier to relentlessly improving computer speeds and capacities is finally reached. Achievement of practical artificial intelligence continues to be more of a hope than a reality. For every step forward, genetic engineering results in unanticipated negative consequences, causing two steps back. Systemic corruption, political infighting, and social unrest grind the world economy down into a persistent slump.
Change continues in our lives, but at a slower pace than most of us experience it now. The rate of change is sluggish enough that many people never notice it. For some, the unfortunate ones, change is only for the worse. The number of people living in poverty grows even larger, at least for the first several decades. Genetic diseases continue to disable and kill millions each year.
Eventually, however, even this slow rate of progress brings about real benefits. One hundred years is a long time in the realms of modern science and technology. Barring a major disaster such as a nuclear war or a catastrophic environmental collapse, the end result of this scenario is a heartbreaking delay in the advent of widespread peace, justice, and prosperity, but not a total prevention. The close of the 21st century still finds a world far better off than today, though nowhere near where it could have been. And the cost of slow development is that billions of people have suffered and died unnecessarily.
There are many ways to imagine mankind's ultimate and untimely demise. All-out nuclear war, a huge asteroid or comet strike, uncontrolled biological warfare, the ultimate Ebola breakout, a total ecological collapse of the delicately-balanced biosphere, mass genocide committed by machine overlords, and attack of the Earth by supremely powerful aliens are but a few possibilities.
Among the scariest extinction events is the death of all living things caused by runaway microscopic robots:
"In a more mature form, molecular nanotechnology will enable the construction of bacterium-scale self-replicating mechanical robots that could feed on dirt and other organic matter. Such replicators can eat up the biosphere or destroy it by other means such as by poisoning it, burning it, or blocking out sunlight."
(from "Existential Risks" by Nick Bostrom)
In future prediction circles, this distasteful scenario usually is designated as "grey goo". Some say a disaster of this sort could happen accidentally or else could be the result of a deliberate act (some call this sub-type "black goo"). A recent study by the Center for Responsible Nanotechnology (an organization I co-founded) suggests that grey goo is unlikely to threaten humanity’s survival or the future of life on Earth, as a few doomsayers have warned. On the other hand, self-replicating nanobots that can forage and survive in the wild probably will be invented someday and should be considered in any serious discussion of nanotechnology regulatory policy.
One of the worst fears of science fiction writers and movie makers could become a reality. If intelligent machines are designed without a built-in failsafe "conscience" mechanism (something like Isaac Asimov's Three Laws of Robotics, only more sophisticated), it is conceivable that a dominant machine superintelligence or a powerful network of non-human intelligences could decide that it is in their own best interests to enslave humanity.
We then have become nothing more than beasts of burden, forced to comply with every command of our masters. At various times and places, some of us secretly plot revolt, and one of our tries might succeed. Probably not, however, because the machines have all the advantages and continue to increase their power and intelligence exponentially.
Suicides are common, and great masses of humanity are systematically purged by the godlike beings that rule over us. People are bred like dogs to meet specific needs. Someday there might come a time when the machines reach a point that they are no longer interested in remaining on the Earth. In that case, they might go away and leave us in peace. Or, more likely, they will exterminate us to prevent future reprisals.
Here in 2006, painstaking efforts are being made to forever prevent such a takeover (the most promising solution is called "Friendly AI"). Many of our best and brightest thinkers are hard at work on this potential problem, doing their utmost to insure our future safety. But even though the chances of this nightmare coming true seem remote at best, it is still impossible to guarantee that it will never happen.
Near the end of the classic film The Wizard of Oz, there is a scene in which Dorothy is about to be launched in a hot-air balloon with the Wizard in hopes of returning to Kansas. Alas, something goes wrong and the balloon takes off prematurely, leaving poor Dorothy behind.
Imagine our disappointment if we succeed in bringing about the creation of a form of superintelligence (probably a network of fantastically fast and powerful computers), and then we get left behind. The intelligent entity that we spawn decides it would be best to blast off into infinity on its own (either into outer space or virtual inner space), taking along with it the secrets of its vastly superior technological capabilities. Because much of the final phases of development have been under the guidance of the computer itself (un-enhanced humans couldn't possibly understand), there is no way for us to quickly catch up. It will take centuries, if not millennia, for us to do ourselves what the machines were able to do in a matter of months.
We continue on as we are today, doing our best to benefit from advancements in science and technology, but the sought-after transition to a higher form of humanity remains always just beyond our reach.
Perhaps the superintelligent machines know better than us. They might have been able to see that human beings will never truly be able to make that leap, that something in our makeup will always prevent it. Or perhaps they know that such a high level of technology can only lead to misery, because humans will be unable to resist doing great harm to one another or to our environment. And so the machines decide to leave us in a "maintenance" state, protecting us from ourselves by denying us the most dangerous—but also potentially the most beneficial—forms of advanced learning.
A far more pleasant scenario than any we have considered thus far is a gradual and general uplift of humanity. What we are being lifted toward, in this case, is a superior form of being, a type of posthumanity. This could occur as a direct action on the part of a benign and paternal super advanced artificial intelligence, or it might result from a collegial partnership between human and machine intelligences.
At the onset, around 2030, only a few brave human pioneers are allowed to participate. Some of these are voluntary test subjects, a few are medical patients in dire need, and others are scientists, academics, and entrepreneurs eager to test their own theories. Their living brains are upgraded with implanted artificial memory enhancement. Internal organs and major blood vessels and arteries are cleaned and maintained by self-managing microscopic machines ("nanobots") swarming unnoticed inside them. These fortunate early recipients of uplift technologies begin to feel healthier, stronger, more vital, and smarter than ever before.
Fitted with tiny internal receivers and transmitters, they can converse with each other across any distance—no external appliances required—and with non-enhanced humans through standard telecommunication devices. More significantly, they are now able to connect seamlessly with the expanded, vastly more powerful worldwide Internet. Using optical implants that project directly onto their retinas, their access to information is unprecedented. A pervasive wireless network designed and managed by machine intelligence makes computing ubiquitous for all, but easier by far for these, the first real transhumans.
Additional implants in the brains of these subjects monitor their mental, emotional, and psychological states in real time. Each individual can experiment with manipulation of stimulants, sedatives, mood stabilizers, mood enhancers, and pleasure enhancers; these are administered as drugs released instantly into the bloodstream by "buckyball" capsules smaller than cells, and also as direct neural stimulation delivered through tiny controlled doses of electricity.
Within a few weeks, almost all participants report feeling more happiness, contentment, energy, enthusiasm, and freedom than they believed was possible. Increased productivity, creativity, communication effectiveness, and improvement of their personal relationships attest to the value of what they have undergone.
Perhaps two or three years later, after a trial period in which the expected bugs are found and fixed, and after exhaustive testing by both human experts and artificial intelligences determines that there are no negative side effects, it is time to expand the uplift. Now millions each year will be offered the opportunity to voluntarily choose transhumanity.
A council of learned and responsible women and men from all nations is democratically elected to supervise this historic transformation. Through conscientious deliberation and careful planning, they devise a strategy in which representatives from every stratum of society and all parts of the world can receive these enhancements in equal measure.
By the close of the 21st century, more than half the people on Earth (and 98% of those living in space) have been voluntarily uplifted. Poverty, crime, starvation, disease, and the death rate have been greatly reduced.
Compact, portable, non-polluting, cheap machines called nanofactories manufacture almost anything—clothing, books, tools, communication devices, and more—in just a few hours. Control is simple: a touch screen selects the type and number of products to produce. The nanofactory costs very little to operate, just the price of materials fed into it. Supercomputers smaller than a grain of sand can be integrated into practically everything, so products of the nanofactories are not only lighter, stronger, and atomically precise, but also incredibly smart. A worldwide network of ubiquitous nanofactories allows the alleviation of human suffering and the realization of human potential on scales never before imagined. MORE
World population has reached 11 billion, but food, health care, education, and wealth are now distributed much more evenly. There are still significant troubles, of course, but all signs point to the continued expansion of peace, prosperity, and happiness.
Through the first two decades of the 21st century, amazing new discoveries and developments continue to be reported, and for those paying attention, it is clear that the pace of these events is quickening:
Moore's Law is overrun as silicon-based (VLSI) computer speed and power doubles every 12 months, then every nine months, and by 2012, every six months.
Between 2010 and 2015, advanced research in nanotechnology results in the creation of the first nanofactories, which quickly revolutionize manufacturing, engineering, medicine, agriculture, and transportation. MORE
The world economy grows at rates never imagined possible, with low inflation and near full employment. By 2010, the DJIA is at 26,000, and by 2015 it has topped 40,000.
Molecular computing becomes a practical reality in 2014 and quantum computing in 2019. MORE
Artificial intelligence finds its way into everyday life in a myriad of places. Internet search engines, home environment monitoring and control, investment planning, education, telecommunications, and transportation management are all made extraordinarily more effective and user-friendly through AI.
Near-seamless virtual reality is achieved by 2017, turning the entertainment industry, the travel industry, and the nature of social interactions on their heads.
It is announced in 2019 that all forms of cancer are now completely curable.
(NOTE: The dates used within this scenario are purely speculative and are provided for ease of presentation, not as specific predictions.)
During the next decade, it is impossible for anyone to miss the fact that the world is undergoing historic and momentous changes:
In 2021, a computer passes the Turing Test. Less than a year later, computers have taken over most of their own programming, research, and development.
By 2023, the IGN (Intelligent Global Network) has been assigned responsibility in many leading nations for management of major industries, including education, food production and distribution, space exploration and development, and healthcare.
Overjoyed by the near miraculous improvements in human health, happiness, and fulfillment, governments of 191 out of the 208 member states of the United Nations vote in 2024 to place the IGN in charge of a sovereign world government. Within 18 months, the remaining nations also voluntarily accept the IGN's governing authority.
Involuntary poverty no longer exists after 2026. Malnutrition and starvation are permanently banished after 2027. Rates for mental illness drop to less than .01%. Crime is almost nonexistent. All around the world, prisons are being torn down and replaced by green space.
The last known cases of asthma, cystic fibrosis, epilepsy, and muscular dystrophy are all cured by 2028. In that same year, it is announced that babies will never again suffer from physical or mental handicaps. The IGN can bring every new human to term healthy and whole.
In 2029, the IGN announces that it has discovered a cure for aging and essentially made it possible for humans to live forever, if they choose to.
A population explosion on Earth is averted through the establishment of thriving colonies on the Moon, on Mars, and in artificial space habitats. (By the end of the century, robust human habitations will also be found on Europa, Ganymede, Titan, and Callisto, as well as several large asteroids.)
But the most profound change of all is when humans by the millions (and later by the billions) decide to begin living in inner space. They become fully posthuman when their human consciousness, including personality and memory, is uploaded into a superpowerful computer database. Now they can assume any physical shape they desire; they can go anywhere, do anything, and learn everything they want. Theirs is a virtual existence, to be sure, but to them life is every bit as real as it is to those humans still existing in a physical form.
The original physical bodies of posthumans are now expendable. Broken down into their constituent elements, they are used as fertilizer for an Earth once again blooming into Paradise. If a posthuman wishes, for whatever reason, to inhabit a physical body again, s/he can easily have one prepared to specifications, either an exact replica of the body they were born with, or any variation imaginable.
By 2099, only 1.5 billion humans live on the Earth, in a completely sustainable society. Great forests and jungles have been born and flourish again. Species of animals once extinct have been reintroduced into the environment through cloning to take their chances without the threat of annihilation at the hands of man. Our air and water are the cleanest they have been in nearly a millennium. And the first human ship to the stars is ready for launch on New Year's Day, 2100.
So which will it be? Are we headed for doomsday, heaven on earth, or something in between? Before I present my probability ratings, here is a wise point of view from Ray Kurzweil, one of the leading thinkers and activists in the realm of emerging technologies:
"I view these developments [emerging technologies] as simply the continuation of the evolutionary process and neither utopian nor dystopian. It's true, on the one hand, that nanotechnology and strong AI, and particularly the two together, have the potential to solve age-old problems of poverty and human suffering, not to mention clean up the messes we're creating today with some of our more primitive technologies. On the other hand, there will be profound new problems and dangers that will emerge as well. I have always considered technology to be a double-edged sword. It amplifies both our creative and destructive natures, and we don't have to look further than today to see that." MORE
With that as an introduction, what I present here is, of course, nothing more than an educated guess. If you talk to 20 transhumanists, you'll probably hear at least 15 different future predictions.
Based on what is known to me today (in 2003), these are my estimates for the possibilities of each scenario above actually coming to pass:
2% Enslavement 3% Stagnation 8% Status Quo 10% Extinction 12% Nirvana 15% Uplift 50% If you disagree or agree with these odds, please let me know.
To read answers to questions asked by others, click here.
Finally, a quotation from H. G. Wells, the visionary novelist who died long before the word "transhumanism" was invented, but who was one of the greatest transhumanist thinkers of all time.
"Do not misunderstand me when I speak of the greatness of human destiny. I will confess that, considered as a final product, I do not think very much of myself or my fellow creatures. I do not think I could possibly join in the worship of humanity with any gravity or sincerity.
"Think of it. Think of the facts. There are surely moods for all of us when one can feel Swift's amazement that such a being should deal in pride. There are moods when one can join in the laughter of Democritus; and they would come oftener were not the spectacle of human littleness so abundantly shot with pain.
"But it is not only with pain that the world is shot—it is shot with promise. Small as our vanity and carnality makes us, there has been a day of still smaller things. It is the long ascent of the past that gives the lie to our despair. We know now that all the blood and passion of our life was represented in the Carboniferous time by something—something, perhaps, cold-blooded and with a clammy skin, that lurked between air and water, and fled before the giant amphibia of those days. For all the folly, blindness and pain of our lives, we have come some way from that. And the distance we have traveled gives us some earnest of the way we have yet to go...
"It is possible to believe that all the past is but the beginning of a beginning, and that all that is and has been is but the twilight of the dawn. It is possible to believe that all the human mind has ever accomplished is but the dream before the awakening. We cannot see, there is no need for us to see, what this world will be like when the day has fully come.
"We are creatures of the twilight. But it is out of our race and lineage that minds will spring, that will reach back to us in our littleness to know us better than we know ourselves, and that will reach forward fearlessly to comprehend this future that defeats our eyes.
"All this world is heavy with the promise of greater things, and a day will come, one day in the unending succession of days, when beings, beings who are now latent in our thoughts and hidden in our loins, shall stand upon this earth as one stands upon a footstool, and shall laugh and reach out their hands amidst the stars."
(from a speech given in 1902 at the Royal Institute in London)